The star quarterback’s numbers have taken a dip in this area

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the NFL’s five remaining unbeaten teams. And yet, for the second year in a row, Andy Reid’s vaunted offense doesn’t appear to be the juggernaut it once was. Entering Week 4, the reigning Super Bowl champions are squarely in the middle of the pack in terms of yards per game (14th), passing yards per attempt (18th) and passer rating (17th).

There are multiple culprits: Injuries (e.g. running back Isiah Pacheco), personnel shuffles at left tackle, maybe even an aging, slowing Travis Kelce. How about the two-time MVP quarterback, Patrick Mahomes?

The only stat that matters in the end is the team record, and the Chiefs are 3-0, looking for their third straight title. But SportsLine’s Stephen Oh believes Kansas City would have an exponentially larger chance at going the distance (again) if it weren’t for Mahomes’ clear statistical dip over the last year.

While Mahomes is completing passes at a top-10 clip (69.6%) right now, he’s now gone 16 straight games without a three-touchdown game through the air. The last time he achieved that mark: Oct. 22, 2023, during last year’s Week 7 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Throwing three scores doesn’t always equate to victory, but consider that from 2018 to 2022, Mahomes averaged 2.43 pass touchdowns per game (regular season), plus 2.5 per game in 14 playoff games. Since the start of the 2023 season, the perennial Pro Bowler is averaging just 1.65 passing scores per game.

Already with four interceptions in three games this year, Mahomes has actually stayed fairly steady in terms of turnovers through the air; he’s thrown double-digit picks in four of his past six seasons, which speaks to his knack for hunting improbable plays. The issue is, he’s not matching the touchdown production to offset it, as he did in his peak MVP-contending years of 2018-2022.

If that Mahomes were currently under center, improving the Chiefs’ scoring each week, Kansas City’s Super Bowl chances would jump by 60% in the SportsLine Projection Model, Oh suggests.

Is it true, then, that Mahomes has effectively become something of a high-end game manager? The numbers back up the notion. The numbers don’t show, however, that Mahomes hasn’t needed to be more — forcing throws to create splashy scores — due to added defensive support. After ranking 31st, 17th, 16th and 27th in Mahomes’ first four seasons, respectively, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit erupted with a top-two finish in 2023, suffocating opposing teams thanks to Chris Jones-led trench pressure and a physical secondary, which outlasted the ultra-talented San Francisco 49ers for the Lombardi last February.

The Spagnuolo defense hasn’t been nearly as dominant to start 2024, but the Chiefs have still managed a top-10 point differential, and that’s again come against strong competition: the Ravens, Bengals and Falcons, two of whom entered the year as anticipated Super Bowl contenders. Throw in the fact Mahomes has been working with a makeshift backfield headlined by rookie Carson Steele, a shuffling left tackle spot, and a receiver room starting a rookie in Xavier Worthy, and it’s even harder to knock his numbers.

Can he be more careful with the ball when tossing it downfield? Yes. Is it harder to sustain his current state of grind-it-out offense in today’s NFL? Probably. But if we could go back in time to retrieve, say, the 50-touchdown Mahomes of 2018, we’d also have to accept the porous Chiefs secondary of 2018. Was late-stage Tom Brady also a “high-end game manager” with the New England Patriots? At a certain point we also need to give Mahomes credit for adapting to the circumstances, redefining his own style and tendencies in the name of continued success. He’s still getting the job done when it matters most.

Plus, who’s to say his numbers won’t tip back into splashy territory as he and Worthy further their chemistry? Or Rashee Rice keeps emerging as a bona fide No. 1? Or Trent McDuffie and Co. round into form on the other side? Certainly not us. Certainly not those who’ve watched this movie before, and seen repeatedly how it ends.