Mystics’ playoff formula: Defeat Caitlin Clark, then hope for the best

To have a shot at a playoff spot, Washington must get past Clark and the Indiana Fever on Thursday night at Capital One Arena — and get help.

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark will try to prevent the Washington Mystics from making the WNBA playoffs when both teams face off Thursday at Capital One Arena. (Craig Hudson for The Washington Post)

Eric Thibault scratched his face, took a deep breath and crossed his arms before carefully crafting his words to avoid saying the one that mattered with a single game remaining. The Washington Mystics coach has been adept at leading his team into playoff contention after a horrendous start, all while limiting talk on the subject.

After his team lost control of its postseason destiny Tuesday night with a home loss to the New York Liberty, Thibault talked about having one last chance to “represent ourselves” and show “resilience.” What he didn’t say is the Mystics have one last chance to make the playoffs, and to get there they’ll have to upset a white-hot Indiana Fever team featuring likely rookie of the year Caitlin Clark, who has played as though she deserves to be named first-team all-WNBA since returning from the Olympic break.

That’s one of three results that need to happen Thursday night for the Mystics (13-26) to play on:

That would create a three-way tie from which the Mystics would emerge. New York clinched the No. 1 seed with its win Tuesday and will face whichever team gets that final playoff spot.

If the Mystics make it, they would set the record for the most consecutive losses to start a season for a team that makes the postseason; Washington began a franchise-worst 0-12. The Mystics have tried to avoid public discussion about the playoffs, but the stakes are well-known.

Thibault wouldn’t say whether he thinks nerves have crept into the Mystics’ minds during their past two games, both home losses.

“I have no idea. It’s possible,” he said. “I don’t know. I wouldn’t say for sure. I’m not going to speak for them in terms of what they’re feeling. We’re also playing good teams that are playing for a lot themselves.”

The Fever is 9-4 since the Olympic break; Clark has been named Eastern Conference player of the week three times in a row. She also was named rookie and conference player of the month in August. The Fever has gone from just trying to make the postseason to being considered one of the league’s most dangerous teams. A victory Thursday would secure Indiana’s first winning season since 2015, and it will be making its first playoff appearance since 2016.

Clark has set the WNBA single-season assist record and recently broke Seimone Augustus’s rookie scoring record. Her 19.5 points per game are eighth in the league. Since the Olympic break, she has averaged 24.3 points, which ranks third.

“We’re not just happy to be there,” Clark said. “We really feel like we can compete with every single team that’s going to be in the playoffs. You go into the Washington game — we still expect to win that, too. We know Washington is going to be fighting for that last playoff spot, too.”

AdRegardless of whether the Mystics reach the postseason, they will have a lottery pick — their own or the Dream’s. The WNBA uses winning percentage over the past two seasons to determine lottery odds, and the Los Angeles Sparks (.304) have the best odds secured. The Dallas Wings and the Sky are tied with the next-lowest winning percentage (.392), and the Mystics (.405) follow. Atlanta is at .418.

The Sparks have a 44.2 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick, and the next team in line will have 27.6 percent odds. The third team has a 17.8 percent chance, and the fourth sits at 10.4 percent.

Washington could have two top-five picks if the Mystics or Dream makes the playoffs, then loses in the first round. Two lottery picks would be a long-shot consolation prize if the Sky sneaks into the postseason.

“Part of what we’re trying to go through right now with our team is to, over the next couple years, have some young players that are under contract that have an upside,” Mystics General Manager Mike Thibault said at the start of the season, “and see where that takes us over the next two years.”