2024 NFL MVP odds, picks: Patrick Mahomes slight leader in wide-ranging MVP predictions, plus more award picks

We are just days away from the start of the 2024 regular season kicking off at Arrowhead Stadium with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Before we get to the opener, we here at CBS Sports have been planting our flag and making various predictions for how we think the season will unfold. Next up is how we think the various awards, like Most Valuable Player, shake out.

Before we get to our staff predictions, you can also check out our friends at SportsLine to see the site’s NFL Futures Betting Guide. There, you can also find SportsLine’s R.J. White’s full breakdown of how he is attacking the MVP futures market among others.

Before we get started, here’s a rundown of the staff members making the picks: Tyler Sullivan, Jordan Dajani, Eric Kernish, Cody Benjamin, Josh Edwards, Kyle Stackpole, Garrett Podell, and John Breech.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Key MVP odds

Patrick Mahomes (+450)
Josh Allen (+800)
Joe Burrow (+1000)
C.J. Stroud (+1200)
Jalen Hurts (+1200)
Jordan Love (+1400)
Lamar Jackson (+1600)
Brock Purdy (+1600)
Tua Tagovailoa (+2000)
Dak Prescott (+2000)
Aaron Rodgers (+2000)
Jared Goff (+2500)

Sullivan: Patrick Mahomes (+450). Yes, it’s chalk, but Mahomes is coming off a season where he still threw for over 4,000 yards despite horrendous play at receiver. Kansas City has since revamped that wideout room, which could result in a bonkers statistical season from the face of the league.

Kernish: Jalen Hurts (+1200). The Eagles had a rough finish last season, but revamped their team (roster and coaching staff) to get things fixed for 2024. Expect Jalen Hurts to be the biggest beneficiary with a new OC (Kellen Moore) and new elite RB (Saquon Barkley) as he bounces back with a career year.

Benjamin: Patrick Mahomes (+450). Ugh, this is such a boring pick, isn’t it? Oh well. Unlike 2023, when Mahomes slogged his way through many games while leaning on a stingy defense, this year should feature vintage Chiefs fireworks, thanks to the addition of new downfield weapons for the star quarterback.

Edwards: Josh Allen (+800). Buffalo lost a lot from last year’s team. If they are going to be in the thick of the AFC playoff conversation, then Allen will need to put the team on his back.

Stackpole: Joe Burrow (+1000). Burrow returns from injury and reminds everyone how good he is when he’s on the field for a full season.

Breech: Jared Goff (+2500). Goff put up huge stats last season and his numbers could shoot even higher in 2024, thanks to a schedule that will see the Lions play 13 of their first 14 games indoors.

Dajani: Tua Tagovailoa (+2000). Tua has gotten better and better each season, and he’s been in the “MVP conversation” over the last two years. Why not take him at 22-to-1?

Podell: Jordan Love (+1400). Jordan Love threw the second-most touchdown passes in football in 2023 (32) despite really only finding his groove in the second half of the season. That’s when he locked in for an NFL-best touchdown-to-interception ratio of 18-1 from Weeks 11-18 en route to leading the Packers back to the postseason. His growth along with the NFL’s youngest group of pass-catchers and the addition of 26-year-old, 2022 NFL rushing champion Josh Jacobs lifts Love’s play to greater heights en route to earning NFL MVP honors.

Offensive Rookie of the Year best bets

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Sullivan: Jayden Daniels (+600). I love the value here. Caleb Williams is rightfully the favorite, but the case you make for the Bears QB is the same you can make for Daniels, but at a +600 price tag. Daniels could be electric with both his arm and his legs, which should have him finish the season with totals worthy of OROY consideration.

Kernish: Caleb Williams (+120). It’s all set up perfectly for this year’s No. 1 overall pick. He has the talent, and he certainly has the cast of playmakers around him. Williams should have no problems claiming this honor as long as he stays healthy.

Benjamin: Caleb Williams (+120). Another chalk pick, but you know what? No one’s gonna care — especially not Bears fans — if Williams’ preseason pizzazz carries over into real games. The guy is gonna be a fun watch, and his veteran supporting cast should help his numbers match the eye test.

Edwards: Caleb Williams (+120). Williams may be more volatile than C.J. Stroud had been a year ago, but he should still produce highlight plays regularly. With a strong supporting cast around him, the No. 1 overall pick should find early success.

Stackpole: Caleb Williams (+120). The best QB prospect in recent memory with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen to throw to? It’s a recipe for a lot of production.

Breech: Bo Nix (+1100). Caleb Williams is going to be the popular pick, but I’m going with the long shot here in Bo Nix. If he has one advantage over Williams and Jayden Daniels, it’s that he has an offensive-minded head coach in Sean Payton.

Dajani: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+650). Most will likely take Caleb Williams here, but give me the young wideout who will have an immediate impact on the Cardinals offense.

Podell: Caleb Williams (+120). The Chicago Bears are the only franchise in NFL history without a quarterback who has thrown for either 30 touchdowns or 4,000 yards in a season. Williams is likely to achieve at least one of these metrics as the first quarterback to be a top-five pick who has inherited two wide receivers coming off of 1,200-yard receiving seasons in Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. That’s on top of the selection of college football’s receiving yards leader Rome Odunze ninth overall and the signing for running back D’Andre Swift. Williams is set up for a big year.

Offensive Player of the Year best bets

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Sullivan: Tyreek Hill (+750). Do people forget that Hill was on a 2,000-receiving yard trajectory a season ago? There’s no reason to think he won’t rival accomplishing it in 2024. And if he comes anywhere close, he’ll be a lock for this award.

Kernish: Bijan Robinson (+1600). This dual-threat back should make a huge jump in Year 2, thanks to much-needed changes in Atlanta. If Robinson gets more than his share of touches, expect great things to happen as he shows the league why he was taken eighth overall in last year’s draft.

Benjamin: CeeDee Lamb (+1100). Is it possible for his production to increase after such a dominant 2023? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, Lamb has recently been the centerpiece of Dallas’ offense, and with Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy out to prove their worth, he figures to retain that role.

Edwards: CeeDee Lamb (+1100). Dallas will need to lean on Lamb a bit more in the pass game this year so he will have the stats to win the consolation MVP award that can be given to a non-quarterback.

Stackpole: CeeDee Lamb (+1100). Fresh off a massive contract extension, Lamb puts up massive numbers while carrying the Cowboys offense.

Breech: Derrick Henry (+4000). Henry was the NFL’s second-leading rusher last season, and now, he gets to play for the team that led the NFL in rushing last year. That’s a lethal combination.

Dajani: Breece Hall (+1600). I’m expecting an offensive explosion for the young back in New York, who may finally have a QB and offensive line.

Podell: CeeDee Lamb (+1100). The Dallas Cowboys’ offense will be even more centered around 2023 NFL receptions leader (135) CeeDee Lamb’s abilities in 2024. Tony Pollard, a 1,000-yard rusher in each of the last two seasons, is now in Nashville with the Tennessee Titans, and Dallas’ running back committee of Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, Deuce Vaughn and Dalvin Cook is full of question marks. Dak Prescott will be targeting Lamb early and often as the Cowboys look to make the most of the All-Pro receiver’s new four-year, $136 million contract.

Defensive Rookie of the Year best bets

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Sullivan: Byron Murphy II (+440). Murphy fell to the perfect destination in the Seahawks in the NFL Draft. The Texas product will fit perfectly into new head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense and should be able to put up the necessary sack totals to have him stand above the rest of his rookie classmates.

Kernish. Laiatu Latu (+400). The first defensive player taken in this year’s draft, Latu is an ultra-productive pass rusher who has a great opportunity to be a disruptive force as a rookie, especially playing on such a talented Colts defensive line.

Benjamin: Byron Murphy II (+1400). One of the top interior prospects of the 2024 class, Murphy should find instant results under new Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, and alongside veteran stalwarts like Leonard Williams.

Edwards: Dallas Turner (+440). Defensive Rookie of the Year is often won by a player with at least seven sacks. If that rookie can reach nine sacks, then it is almost a guarantee. Turner will have an opportunity to put up numbers in Brian Flores’ attacking defensive scheme.

Stackpole: Jared Verse (+700). Verse racked up a combined 18.0 sacks and 29.5 tackles for loss over his last two seasons at Florida State. He has the skill set to produce right away in Los Angeles.

Breech: Jared Verse (+700). With Aaron Donald now retired, that opens the door for someone to step up and be the star of the Rams defense and I think verse and do that.

Dajani: Dallas Turner (+440). Watch him wreak havoc off the edge for Brian Flores in Minnesota.

Podell: Laiatu Latu (+400). Edge rusher Samson Ebukam, the Indianapolis Colts’ sacks leader in 2023 with 9.5, tore his Achilles on the third day of training camp, opening up immediate playing time for the first defensive player drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft. Latu’s 23.5 sacks were the most in college football across the last two seasons, and that production translates to the pros for a strong rookie season.

Defensive Player of the year best bets

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Sullivan: Aidan Hutchinson (+1400). We all expect the Lions to be a top-five offense this year, right? That sets Hutchinson up nicely with game scripts where his team will be playing with a lead, forcing opposing offenses to drop back to pass, thus giving Hutchinson the ability to pile up sacks.

Kernish: T.J. Watt (+850). Watt has a great shot at leading the league in sacks once again, and it sure feels like the Steelers star defender and future Hall of Famer is overdue for his second career DPOY award.

Benjamin: Will Anderson Jr. (+3000). Danielle Hunter is a physical freak who brings an added level of physicality to DeMeco Ryans’ front. That should only clear additional lanes for Anderson, the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Look out for a seismic leap in sack production.

Edwards: Micah Parsons (+550). Since Aaron Donald won the award three times over four years, the league has seen a new winner each of the past five years. Parsons should have a strong case and doesn’t suffer from a voter fatigue.

Stackpole: Micah Parsons (+550). He’s basically accomplished everything else so far in his young career. He takes it to yet another level this season.

Breech: T.J. Watt (+850). After getting snubbed last year, I think Watt does enough to win this award for the second time.

Dajani: Micah Parsons (+550). Parsons wins DPOY as he enters serious extension talks with the Cowboys.

Podell: Micah Parsons (+550). There was a strong case for Cowboys three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons to be the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He led the league in quarterback pressures (103), quarterback pressure rate (21.8%) and pass-rush win rate (35.3%). He also racked up a career-high 14.0 sacks, tied with 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett for the seventh-most in the league. Parsons did all of this while being double-teamed on 35% of his pass rushes last season, the highest rate in the NFL among edge players, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. There wasn’t another edge rusher in the NFL who was double-teamed at a rate of 30% or higher in 2023. Parsons thrives in Mike Zimmer’s defense, leading to him finally taking home the hardware.

Comeback Player of the Year best bets

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Justin Herbert (+4500): Herbert is widely considered one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, but has been plagued with subpar coaching for the bulk of his career. That’s now done a 180 with Jim Harbaugh in town. He should be able to squeeze the very best out of Herbert, who is coming back from a season-ending finger injury in 2023. The value is ridiculous considering his status and position.

Kernish: Joe Burrow (+250). Aaron Rodgers is a great pick and feel-good story after coming back from a torn Achilles, but I’m going with Burrow. If he can stay healthy all season — and has Ja’Marr Chase available and not holding out for a new deal — the Bengals quarterback should take home this award as I expect MVP-caliber stats.

Benjamin: Aaron Rodgers (+175). If A-Rod merely stays healthy and delivers on some of the promise he injected into East Rutherford upon arrival back in 2023, this award will/should be his. That could mean simply getting the Jets to the playoffs, which hasn’t happened for almost 15 years.

Edwards: Joe Burrow (+175). Burrow wins Comeback Player of the Year for the second time in his career. It would also be the seventh straight year that a quarterback has won the award.

Stackpole: Aaron Rodgers (+175). When Rodgers is on the field, he’s awesome. That won’t change as long as he remains healthy.

Breech: Aaron Rodgers (+175). If the Jets are even remotely good, it feels like Rodgers will win this award.

Dajani: Aaron Rodgers (+175). Joe Burrow would be a good bet here, too. But Rodgers tore his Achilles in the season opener last year. What if he returns and plays well as the oldest player in the league?

Podell: Aaron Rodgers (+175). Aaron Rodgers only took four snaps as the New York Jets’ starting quarterback before his Achilles gave out on “Monday Night Football.” With a revamped offensive line, Rodgers returns to playing Pro Bowl-caliber football and leads the Jets back to the postseason, snapping the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports (no playoffs since 2010). That should be good enough to win the award.

Coach of the Year best bets

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Sullivan: Mike Macdonald (+1200). First-year head coaches typically have the inside track at this award, so Macdonald checks that box. I’m also bullish on the Seahawks this season and believe they are a playoff team. If Macdonald proves me right, he’ll be a leading candidate to be COY.

Kernish: DeMeco Ryans (+1400). The Texans head coach exceeded expectations in Year 1, and can do it once again as his roster is even better in 2024. If Houston can win a wide-open AFC South division and make another run in the playoffs, the award will go to Ryans.

Benjamin: Jim Harbaugh (+1000). He’s already a favorite in NFL circles for his blue-collar approach and winning track record, and the non-Chiefs competition in the AFC West should enable his overhauled Justin Herbert-led squad to hang around the playoff conversation.

Edwards: DeMeco Ryans (+1400). Ryans had a strong case for the award last year, but if the Texans take the next step forward as expected, the head coach will be showered with praise.

Stackpole: Jim Harbaugh (+1000). His quarterback is coming back from injury and his receivers leave a lot to be desired. Yet Jim Harbaugh just knows how to win, and he’ll do enough of that in Year 1 to warrant this honor.

Breech: Sean McVay (+3000). I think the Rams might win the NFC West this year and if they win the division after losing a future Hall of Famer to retirement in Aaron Donald, I think the voters might give this award to McVay.

Dajani: DeMeco Ryans (+1400). The Texans live up to the hype in the regular season, and Ryans wins Coach of the Year after being a finalist last season.

Podell: Matt LaFleur (+1300). Matt LaFleur has had multiple cases to take home this award with big turnarounds (2019 and 2023) and dominance (2020 and 2021). However, this may be his best shot yet as the NFL world recognizes his work in developing Jordan Love after likely dinging him for inheriting Aaron Rodgers. Love and his youthful cast of playmakers take a big step in their second season working together, leading to double-digit wins once again and hardware for LaFleur.