Atlanta Falcons’ defense will test Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs’ offense

.

.

.

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid with quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) against the San Francisco 49ers during Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In this story:

The 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs took care of business at home, so now it’s time for Andy Reid’s squad to hit the road for Week 3 of NFL action.

Waiting for them are the Atlanta Falcons, who are ushering in a new era under head coach Raheem Morris and quarterback Kirk Cousins. The results have been mixed through two weeks, but a clutch victory over the Philadelphia Eagles has them riding high entering a high-profile battle.

How does Kansas City match up with Atlanta, and how could Sunday night’s game unfold? Let’s preview Week 3 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Falcons during the offseason

Gains: QB Kirk Cousins, S Justin Simmons, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Charlie Woerner, DT Ruke Orhorhoro, DE Bralen Trice

Losses: DL Calais Campbell, CB Tre Flowers, WR Mack Hollins, TE Jonnu Smith, LB Bud Dupree, OL Matt Hennessy, RB Cordarrelle Patterson

Falcons offensive breakdown: New-look Atlanta with Kirk Cousins at QB?

The theme of Atlanta’s offseason was change. With Zac Robinson leading the offense and Cousins in town at quarterback, the Falcons are still clearly finding their footing. The most inspired they looked was a two-minute drill at the end of Week 2’s win, so it’s hard to decipher exactly what the real offense is just yet.

With that said, there are some clear schematic advantages and disadvantages at play. Atlanta has yet to score a rushing touchdown this year, and the club’s -10.7 pass rate over expected (per nfelo) is surprising. The Falcons are 16th in EPA per pass and 23rd in EPA per rush, so they have yet to establish consistency with either option.

Another wrinkle to consider is Cousins’ performance versus different coverages last season as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. He averaged 0.28 EPA/play against Cover-1 but 0.00 EPA/play against Cover-4 (NFL Quarterback and Defensive Coverage Efficiency). That gives the Chiefs a double-edged sword to deal with, as Steve Spagnuolo is going to Cover-1 20% of the time but quarters coverage on 24% of his looks. The latter, which Cousins averaged just 6.76 yards per attempt against last season, could be key.

Last, but certainly not least, is personnel. Atlanta loves getting multiple tight ends on the field (12 personnel rate of 40% this year is third in football) and the uber-talented Kyle Pitts is in the slot at a 45.2% rate. Considering Kansas City’s struggles to slow down Isaiah Likely in Week 1 and Mike Gesicki in Week 2, this is hands-down the most important position-versus-unit matchup of the game.

Falcons defensive breakdown: Good or bad matchup for Chiefs?

On Wednesday, Patrick Mahomes complimented Raheem Morris’s scheme. Two games into the season, though, that side of the ball has yet to change things up too much. Atlanta ranks low in variability and man coverage rate so far, having the look of a more static defense early on. On the other hand, the shell Morris is sticking to just so happens to be one that could challenge Mahomes and company.

After Weeks 1 and 2, the Falcons’ Cover-3 preference is a staggering 45%. That ranks fourth among all teams right now. Last season, Mahomes averaged just 0.12 EPA per attempt against Cover-3 on the fourth-most tries in all of football. He also had the worst average depth of target (5.94 yards) versus those looks among qualified passers (50 or more attempts). That falls directly in line with how folks are attacking this year’s Atlanta defense, as opponents’ 5.91 aDOT is the third-lowest.

That naturally leads to the question of whether Mahomes will take what the defense gives him or grow impatient. Cover-3 will leave the seams and flats open, also opening the door for some run-pass options or slants. Those expecting a high-flying performance from the Chiefs’ offense may want to skip this game. Even with Mahomes’s ridiculous success when playing in a dome (28 touchdowns to three interceptions), the Falcons could test him.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Falcons

Atlanta: RB Bijan Robinson, LB Matthew Judon

Robinson didn’t make the impact many anticipated during his rookie year. Through two games this season, he’s averaging over four more touches and 25 more yards per game. Additionally, his rushing success rate has skyrocketed and he’s faring better on a per-target basis in the passing game. Robinson has yet to score in 2024, but he’s a must-watch player. On the other side of the ball, Judon is a step or two below someone like Trey Hendrickson but he can still rush the passer. He’s recorded six tackles and at least half a sack in back-to-back games to kick off his Falcons career.

Kansas City: WR Xavier Worthy, LB Nick Bolton

With the Chiefs’ offense sputtering against the Cincinnati Bengals, getting Worthy involved more could be critical. The rookie wideout is proving to be capable of more than vertical routes or gadget plays, as my colleague Zack Eisen recently discussed. Defensively, it’s well-documented how bad Kansas City has been at slowing down tight ends. Bolton has played a (negative) role in that, so all eyes will be on him to step up as the leader of that side. It doesn’t get much more difficult than stopping Pitts.

Week 3 score prediction: 23-17 Chiefs

Atlanta is a veteran team that doesn’t rely on its rookie-contract players. Cousins should look more and more comfortable as the year goes on and while the Morris defense has flaws and is early in its development, it’s also annoying for a signal-caller to face. With that in mind, I’m taking the Chiefs to cover in this one, but not without a scare. There’s no shame in not blowing out a feisty Falcons team, especially in a 2024 road debut. Mahomes throws for two touchdowns and leads three other scoring drives as his team secures a 3-0 start to the year.