3 ways the Chiefs’ offense can finish more red-zone drives

Even when they are undefeated, the Kansas City Chiefs typically use the bye week to self-evaluate. So during Week 6, the Chiefs were probably focused on their success in the red zone, where the offense has scored touchdowns on only 39% of its possessions. That’s the league’s fourth-lowest rate.

This means the unit has failed to finish 11 of the 18 drives that advanced past an opponent’s 20-yard line. It finished 54% in 2023 and 69% in 2022.

These stalled possessions have made some of this season’s wins closer than they needed to be — and now that there are so many offensive injuries, there will be less margin for error. To beat the league’s contenders, Kansas City will need to complete more of its red-zone drives.

Let’s consider some of the ways the Chiefs can do that.

1. Complete throws in tight windows

Head coach Andy Reid has designed his offensive scheme to get receivers open in the passing game. In the red zone, however, the defense has less space to cover. That makes it harder for the offense to manufacture throwing windows. The Chiefs need to earn more completions from these tightly-contested passes.

Looking at the #Chiefs’ 29th-ranked red-zone offense (TD conversion rate)

Mahomes already doesn’t test tight windows much down there, he needs receivers to finish the chances he gives them

Last week’s INT off Juju is another example, even if it could’ve been a better throw pic.twitter.com/AYMCQRToEA

— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) October 15, 2024

On this third-down play in Week 1, quarterback Patrick Mahomes finds wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster at the goal line. But the wideout cannot secure the catch through contact, whiffing on the opportunity to convert — and perhaps even score. After getting the ball at the Baltimore Ravens’ 20-yard line, the team settles for a field goal.

Looks like an RPO here on Mahomes’ INT. I think he pre-determines the pass knowing Saints are in man, and 24 will react to Perine pulling — opening up the slant window

Not a bad read, but RPOs are riskier in condensed space for this exact reason pic.twitter.com/Gsy7CoXOte

— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) October 10, 2024

In Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints, an 82-yard drive ends with no points on this intercepted pass to Smith-Schuster. While the throw is high and slightly behind him, it is catchable. Instead, it is batted up in the air. In this condensed space, that’s almost a guaranteed interception.

This TD got negated, but you want to see Mahomes hit Gray in rhythm here rather than out of structure. Gotta hit tight windows to convert in the RZ

Trips left opens up a window over the middle for Gray isolated. 15 loads up in time, a low throw to sit on could’ve gotten it done pic.twitter.com/HJoZzXmxJh

— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) October 9, 2024

This touchdown pass to tight end Noah Gray is ruined by a holding penalty called on right tackle Jawaan Taylor — but it’s an example of Mahomes failing to throw with anticipation to beat tight coverage. Kansas City aligns in trips on the left, leaving Gray isolated on the right side. With all the attention on the other wide, Gray sets himself up to box out his man-coverage defender, opening a window for Mahomes to make a well-timed throw into the end zone.

But Mahomes passes it up, opting to scramble. While he ends up making the throw, it is still thrown into a tight window.

In this scenario, Gray should have been considered a reliable option to catch the pass from the top of Mahomes’ drop. But the quarterback’s general unwillingness to throw these kinds of contested passes is linked to the receivers Kansas City generally employs: smaller, faster players who make yards after the catch.

The Chiefs should look to their tight ends more often. Jody Fortson could see more usage — and the team could also bring wide receiver Justyn Ross up from the practice squad. He could be more useful in the red zone than wideout Skyy Moore has been in any situation this year.

2. Attack the edges of the defense

Since Kansas City does have speedy receivers, the team should use that to its advantage in the red zone. Going sideline-to-sideline with pre-snap motion and jet-sweep handoffs, wide receivers Mecole Hardman and Xavier Worthy are always a threat to beat defenders to the edge.

The #Chiefs have had red-zone success in the past by challenging teams horizontally with jet sweeps & misdirection

They chipped away at Saints with them, punching it in on Power Read.

They need to continue attacking the edges in the RZ, try to open up the M.O.F. with it pic.twitter.com/AEA7OxWiKL

— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) October 10, 2024

Against the Saints, it did feel like the unit kept defenders on their toes by using this straight-line speed more often. Sweeps to Hardman and Worthy chipped away at the defense — and then in the fourth quarter, the team used Worthy’s ability to dart outside after a handoff to punch in a score.

#Chiefs will continue attacking the edges of the defense in the RZ, cause it can open up the middle of the field

Nice design here to have misdirection one way pre-snap, another way post-snap, then back to Gray after everyone’s ran to each sideline covering Hardman/Worthy pic.twitter.com/sqWM8DlaU4

— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) October 15, 2024

This completion to Gray is a good example of how attacking the edge can open up the middle of the field. Hardman goes into motion to attract defenders — and then at the snap, Worthy runs the other way to become a target in the flat. With the New Orleans defenders scrambling to both sidelines, Mahomes comes back to Gray, who has nobody in front of him until he’s inside the five-yard line.

Given the current state of the team’s wide receiver depth, quick throws (or handoffs with a head start to the sideline) will help take advantage of the strengths of these players. They can also open running lanes (and throwing windows) over the middle.

3. Execute more cleanly

It can be this simple: have cleaner execution in the red zone.

The running game has been efficient as the offense nears the goal line. Kansas City ranks fourth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush in the red zone. It’s the setbacks and missed opportunities that have sometimes killed momentum.

Two of the Chiefs’ red-zone drives against the Saints were doomed by holding penalties. One of these was Taylor’s flag on the pass to Gray. Then a late-game drive stalled on penalties called on center Creed Humphrey and tight end Jared Wiley. That drive also ended in a field goal.

Even outside the red zone, holding penalties can kill scoring chances. Right guard Trey Smith has been called for holding in each of the last two games. In Week 4, the penalty contributed to a potential field goal attempt before halftime being too far away to try. Then in Week 5, his penalty set up a third-and-21 that required tight end Travis Kelce’s downfield lateral (and Kareem Hunt’s tough fourth-and-1 run) to convert.

But Mahomes could tighten his execution, too. While he’s thrown two red-zone interceptions, he’s also sometimes been inconsistent about playing within the rhythm of a passing concept.

Not easy to create open WRs in the red zone, so it sucks to miss them

Watson runs Post, the far safety’s attention on Worthy gives him plenty of room

15 feels pressure from RT, steps up away from it, but goes into scramble mode. Had a chance to reset feet & layer a throw pic.twitter.com/zwnlV5grCK

— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) October 15, 2024

This play from Week 4 would have been a tough throw, but better pocket discipline would have given him a better chance.

One thing is certain: the team cannot continue to leave points on the board. Improving in the red zone will be a key factor in continuing Kansas City’s success.