New Poll Shows Andrew Cuomo Closing In as Zohran Mamdani’s Lead in NYC Mayoral Race Shrinks by Half
The New York City mayoral race is becoming increasingly competitive, with former Governor Andrew Cuomo significantly narrowing the lead of front-runner Zohran Mamdani, according to a new poll released by Suffolk University. The survey indicates that Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, now holds a 44% to 34% advantage over the independent Cuomo among likely voters in the city, a sharp decline from the 20-point lead he enjoyed in September.
Shifting Dynamics in the Race
The latest poll, conducted with 500 likely general election voters from Thursday through Sunday, reveals a tightening race that reflects changing voter sentiments. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa remains in third place with 11% support, a factor that could ultimately influence the outcome of the election. Analysts suggest that Sliwa’s presence in the race may hinder Cuomo’s chances of overtaking Mamdani, as both candidates appear to be drawing votes away from the left-leaning nominee.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, emphasized the significance of Sliwa’s role in the race. “There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” he stated. “It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race.”
Cuomo’s Support and Voter Sentiment
This latest survey is notable as it is the first conducted since Mayor Eric Adams dropped his re-election bid and endorsed Cuomo. It marks the second consecutive poll indicating that the former governor is closing the gap with Mamdani.
However, Cuomo’s gains come with important caveats. The poll reveals that a significant portion of his support stems from voters who are motivated more by opposition to Mamdani than by enthusiasm for Cuomo himself. When asked about their voting motivations, Cuomo’s supporters were evenly split, with 40% voting “for” him and 40% voting “against” Mamdani. In contrast, a substantial 79% of Mamdani’s supporters indicated they were voting “for” him, with only 7% doing so “against” Cuomo.
Cuomo has also made strides among Hispanic voters, now running nearly even with Mamdani after previously trailing by 30 points in that demographic in September. Additionally, he leads among independent voters by 10 points, a significant turnaround from the 18-point deficit he faced just a month ago.
Voter Preferences and Early Voting
The poll also found that 7% of voters remain undecided, while the four other candidates on the ballot collectively garnered 2% support. Notably, if Sliwa were not in the race, a substantial portion of his supporters indicated they would back Cuomo, with 32% naming him as their second choice compared to just 3% for Mamdani.
As early voting continues, with Monday marking the third of nine days leading up to the November 4 election, the dynamics of the race remain fluid. With both Cuomo and Mamdani vying for critical voter segments, the coming days will be crucial in determining who will emerge as the next mayor of New York City.
