Iran’s military, once considered one of the most formidable forces in the region, is imploding from within. Over the last few weeks, a series of devastating blows have shaken the regime’s foundations, from within the military structure itself to its ability to control the streets. In just 12 days, the Iranian military has been dismantled in three waves: the collapse of the command structure, the destruction of internal security mechanisms, and the disintegration of the army itself.

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Wave One: The Death of Command

The first wave, which began on February 28th, targeted the Iranian military’s leadership. Over 50 generals were eliminated, and the command structure was shattered. Key figures were taken out, including General Kamon, whose death led to a massive power vacuum. Those who survived fled the battlefield. In a regime that relied heavily on top-down control, this loss was catastrophic.

But this was just the beginning.

Wave Two: The Destruction of Control Mechanisms

The second wave began on March 9th when Israel shifted its focus from conventional military targets to the regime’s mechanisms for controlling the population. The airstrikes on Elam province were devastating, wiping out internal security headquarters, the ministry of intelligence, and multiple Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centers. The regime’s grip on the people of Iran was severed as besieged checkpoints in Tehran were destroyed, and militants deployed by the regime were targeted. These actions signaled the beginning of the end for the regime’s control over its own citizens.

Wave Three: The Breakdown of the Army

The third wave of collapse came in the form of internal chaos. With soldiers receiving only 20 rounds of ammunition for every two soldiers and suffering from a lack of water and food, the Iranian army was unable to maintain its cohesion. The bloody rift between the regular army (Artesh) and the IRGC reached new heights. The IRGC, responsible for much of the regime’s power, refused to transport wounded soldiers to hospitals, abandoning them to die. As the army faced starvation, desertion rates skyrocketed, and commanders fled. This was a collapse of the military at its most fundamental level.

The Breakdown of Trust Between Artesh and the IRGC

For decades, the Artesh and the IRGC operated as two parallel forces. The Artesh, Iran’s conventional army, had been marginalized by the regime after the 1979 revolution. Meanwhile, the IRGC, which served as the regime’s ideological guardian, became the favored force. The best resources, weapons, and privileges were reserved for the IRGC, while the Artesh soldiers were often left to suffer. But now, as the regime’s strength falters, the divide between these two forces has become irreparable. Soldiers of the Artesh have had enough. They know that the IRGC abandoned them in their time of need, and they’re fighting back. The collapse of this once-unified military force is one of the most striking elements of this breakdown.

Mass Desertions and the Loss of Control

The desertion of soldiers reached a new peak, with thousands of military personnel abandoning their posts and fleeing toward the border. The government’s attempts to call up reserve forces were a complete failure, as most of those who were summoned refused to show up, and those who did take up the call fled with their families. The failure to mobilize reserve forces shows that the regime is losing its grip on its own military. With active-duty troops deserting and reserve forces refusing to report for duty, the Iranian military is now essentially crippled.

Iran’s Proxy Networks: An Unraveling Legacy

Iran’s involvement in proxy wars, including its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq, has been a key part of its regional strategy. But with its internal military infrastructure collapsing, Iran is no longer able to sustain its proxy networks. The logistical backbone that has enabled Iran to supply these groups—cargo planes, road convoys, and sea routes—has been destroyed. Without the means to supply its proxies, Iran’s ability to exert influence in the region is significantly diminished.

The Final Collapse: The End of the Regime

The collapse of Iran’s military is not just about military losses; it is about the unraveling of the regime itself. The Iranian leadership has failed to provide for its soldiers, leading to an irreversible loss of loyalty. The regime’s repression tactics, which have long relied on fear and control, have lost their effectiveness. The fear that once kept the population and the military in line has been shattered, and the revolution that the regime feared has already begun.

As the regime’s military strength fades, its internal rifts deepen. The public is becoming increasingly disillusioned with the regime, and the opposition is growing louder. The regime is in freefall, and the collapse of the military is only the beginning.

The Future of Iran: Will the Regime Survive?

Iran’s military collapse signals the imminent downfall of a regime that once seemed unshakeable. The loss of control over both its military and its people paints a bleak future for the Iranian leadership. With the military in shambles and the economy crumbling, the regime is facing an uncertain future. The likelihood of an uprising grows with every day that the military continues to implode.

What happens next for Iran is unclear, but one thing is certain: the regime’s days are numbered. Whether it will collapse peacefully or violently remains to be seen, but the signs of its impending destruction are impossible to ignore.