49ers are favored vs. Chiefs on Sunday, but Patrick Mahomes usually wins as an underdog

Mahomes, Kelce lead Chiefs' complementary football

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The 49ers are 1.5-point favorites to beat the Chiefs in Sunday’s Super Bowl rematch, but Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes may think that means he has the 49ers right where he wants them.

The Chiefs were 2-point underdogs to the 49ers eight months ago in Super Bowl LVIII, but Mahomes led them to a 25-22 win and was named Super Bowl MVP.

That was no surprise to Mahomes, who usually wins when the Chiefs are underdogs, with a 10-3 career record straight-up in his 13 starts when the Chiefs were underdogs. In fact, Mahomes’ .769 winning percentage as an underdog is almost as good as his career .792 winning percentage as a favorite.

Mahomes’ strong record as an underdog began in the first start of his NFL career, when the Chiefs started him in place of Alex Smith for a meaningless game in the 2017 season finale. The Broncos were favored by 3 points over the Chiefs that day, but Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 27-24 win.

When Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starter in 2018, it took the betting world some time to adjust to how good he was, and the Chiefs were underdogs in both Week One and Week Two, winning both games outright. They were also 3.5-point underdogs in Week Six against the Patriots, losing the game by 3 but winning against the spread, and 3-point underdogs in Week 11 against the Rams, losing by 3 and pushing against the spread.

In 2019 Mahomes was only an underdog once, by 3 points against the Patriots, but he led the Chiefs to a 7-point win.

In 2020 Mahomes was again only an underdog once, by 3.5 against the Ravens, and he led them to a 14-point win.

In 2022 Mahomes was an underdog twice: As a 1-point underdog in Tampa Bay, he led Kansas City to a 10-point win. But as a 2.5-point underdog in Buffalo, the Chiefs lost by 4. That loss at Buffalo was the only time in Mahomes’ career that a bet on him as an underdog was a losing bet; he’s 11-1-1 against the spread when the Chiefs are underdogs. The Chiefs were also 1-point underdogs against the Eagles in the Super Bowl at the end of that season, but Mahomes led them to a 3-point win.

Mahomes was never an underdog during the 2023 regular season, but the Chiefs were underdogs in three playoff games: Against the Bills in the divisional round, against the Ravens in the AFC Championship, and against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. Mahomes led them to wins in all three games.

On Sunday the 49ers will try to do what they couldn’t do in the Super Bowl, and one of the hardest things to do in the NFL: Beat Patrick Mahomes.