GDB 35.0: Oilers kick off their California weekend with matinee against the Kings (2pm MT, SNW)

I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas break because it’s time to get back to work with a pair of matinee games over the next two days. This afternoon, the Edmonton Oilers will take on the Los Angeles Kings for the first time as they look to create space between themselves and L.A. in the Pacific Division standings.
Isn’t it wild that we had to wait until after Christmas for the first of three meetings between the Oilers and Kings? My mind still wanders back to the old days when the boys would play divisional opponents more than three or four times per season. Remember the Northwest Division? Or how about when things really got weird in the all-Canadian division from a few years back in the strange COVID year? Not to get derailed with a tangent about the schedule or anything, but wouldn’t it be more fun to see the Kings more than three times?

Either way, I’m looking forward to seeing how the Oilers and Kings match up again this season because, as we know, it hasn’t been close for years now. When you eliminate a team in the playoffs three seasons in a row — first in seven games, then six, then five — it’s hard to call this head-to-head much of a rivalry, but I do love how spicy some of the games between these two clubs have gotten as a result. Nothing gets the blood pumping like a few good playoff series, you know?
While we’ll have to wait and see if this game gets chippy and chaotic, I fully expect the Kings to bring everything they’ve got to try and win their first game against the Oilers at Crypto.com Arena since February of 2024. If you remember, the Oilers beat the Kings in three-of-four regular season games last season, outscoring L.A. by a 10-9 margin in those meetings. In the playoffs… well… we remember how well that went from an Edmonton perspective as our boys cruised to a series win in only five games. It was dominance.
What that means for today’s game remains to be seen. We’re only a few short hours away from finding out how much of a grudge the Kings hold against Edmonton and how well the Oilers will be prepared to handle it after a week off. It could be spicy, or it could be all business. All I can tell you is that the Kings have likely had this game circled on their calendars for a while, itching at the opportunity to deal a loss to an opponent that’s given them so many over the last three years.
Heading into the Christmas break, the Kings are nine games over .500 at 19-10-5 and have 43 points on the year. At the same point last season, they had 42 points on 19 victories and three fewer games played. While their records are nearly identical, the Kings have had a solid start to their season with Drew Doughty in the lineup. That’s a massive hole on their back end, and yet they’re still managing to win big games and find themselves near the top of the Pacific Division.
If the Oilers are going to extend their winning streak to four games, they’ll need to bring their A-game against a Kings club that will be more than motivated to beat them. While they may not be the same boring 1-3-1 group we’ve seen over the last handful of seasons, L.A. still plays a defensively sound style of hockey that will require patience and strong puck protection to break through. When the Oilers are at their best, they can handle that style of choke-out defending, but if they’re sloppy on the attack, it won’t take much for the Kings to capitalize on chances going the other way. This game is absolutely winnable, but by no means will it be easy.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS

KINGS

RECORD

21-11-2

19-10-5

WIN/LOSS STREAK

W3

L2

LAST 10 GAMES

8-2-0

6-2-2

GOALS FOR

111

104

GOALS AGAINST

95

88

POWER PLAY%

21.6

15.9

PENALTY KILL%

74.7

81.7

AVG. SHOTS/FOR

32.2

27.6

AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST

26.1

24.6

TEAM SAVE%

.913

.918

CORSI FOR%

53.68

53.33

PDO

0.994

1.015

TEAM SHOOTING%

8.15

9.75

EXPECTED GOALS FOR%

53.65

56.14

Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)

Courtesy of Jack Michaels, I learned that the Oilers have the best record in the NHL since November 9th at 15-4-1 in 20 games played. Over that span, the boys scored a league-high 78 goals and ranked 2nd on the penalty kill and were tied for 4th in goals against. Not too bad for a team that was leaking goals en masse back in October, huh?

LINE COMBINATIONS

Oilers

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Kapanen – Henrique – Brown
Skinner – Janmark – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
With RNH back in the lineup after missing the last game with illness, Kris Knoblauch gave the blender another spin for a fresh look in his top nine. Viktor Arvidsson is back on Leon Draisaitl’s right side, while Kasperi Kapanen slides down to the third line left wing spot formerly occupied by Mattias Janmark. Janmark slides down to 4C and Derek Ryan comes out as a healthy scratch for the second time in as many weeks.

Kings

Turcotte – Kopitar – Kempe
Foegele – Byfield – Jeannot
Fiala – Danault – Laferriere
Lee – Helenius – Thomas
Anderson – Gavrikov
Edmundson – Clarke
Moverare – Spence
Kuemper
The Oilers will be going up against an old friend in Warren Foegele, who sits on LA’s second line alongside Quinton Byfield and Tanner Jeannot. Foegele popped in and out of the top six at varying points in his time in Edmonton, but he never really got an extended look in that spot as he has with the Kings. How effective will he be? We shall find out.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From LA Kings Insider:

The Kings will come out of the break with five consecutive games at home, their longest homestand of the season to date and their second longest overall this season. The opponents include Edmonton and Calgary, divisional rivals currently in playoff spots, and New Jersey and Tampa Bay, both currently sitting in playoff spots in the East. A home record of 10-2-1 will be put to the test against quality competition. Kings will get their time off, recharge, and hopefully hit the ground running coming back to it, because points will be equally important then as they were entering the break.
I dunno Insiders. Feeling pretty good about the team right now. Perhaps it’s too much of a good feeling coming out of a 3-1 loss on the road. Perhaps it was broadcasting the game and the excitement coming from it. Perhaps it’s just the time off upcoming, spending the holidays with family for the first time since 2019. Just feels different with this team right now than it did even a month ago. Few days off to evaluate, and then right back to it.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom

Game Day Prediction: The Oilers keep their win streak alive with a convincing 8-1 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: Warren Foegele is totally scoring against us today, isn’t he? Damned former-Oiler curse.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Viktor Arvidsson pulls out the ultimate revenge game against the Kings, scoring his first hat trick as an Oiler and doubling his goal total for the season.