Putin Just Did Something MONUMENTALLY GIGANTICALLY STUPID
For months, Russian officials told the story of a weapon with the power to end the war with Ukraine in a single night.
A next-generation system.
A hyped-up hypersonic nightmare.
Something so powerful, so advanced, and so devastating, its eventual deployment would send shockwaves not just across Ukraine, but far beyond, striking fear into the hearts of NATO leaders and once more re-establishing Russia as one of the world’s most fearsome military powers.
Its name was Oreshnik.
And, according to Moscow, it wasn’t just another missile.
It wasn’t even just another weapon.
It was something that would change the face of modern warfare forever.
The Kremlin did such an effective job of marketing the Oreshnik that the wider world began to buy into the hype.
Stories were written, and debates were had about what this weapon might be able to do when it was finally unleashed.
Experts analyzed every piece of intelligence they could find about it, poring over blueprints and alleged technical specifications, imagining its awesome power.
Even in Ukraine, there were many who feared that when Oreshnik entered the arena, Kyiv’s chances of survival would take a serious hit.
For a while, Moscow was winning.
It had managed to terrorize the world without even needing to launch a single Oreshnik.
It had built an aura of fear around a weapon that hadn’t even been officially live tested.
Then, in May 2026, it made a mistake.
A monumentally stupid mistake.

It launched the Oreshnik and, in doing so, showed the world just how weak this so-called wonder weapon actually was.
Before we look at how the launch unfolded and the embarrassing aftermath that Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, now has to contend with, it’s important to take a step back and see why the Kremlin felt that now was the time to bring the Oreshnik into the battlefield.
There are arguably two main reasons why a country might decide to effectively bring out the big guns and launch a huge, new, and highly powerful weapon several years into a war.
It might do so because it’s winning.
It’s feeling confident, it’s making gains on the ground, and it wants to deliver that final crushing blow, shattering whatever’s left of its opponent’s morale, before marching onwards to victory.
On the other hand, a country might also resort to using a weapon like this if it’s feeling desperate.
With its forces weakened and months going by without major objectives being achieved, it might decide that the only option left is a sudden burst of ‘shock and awe,’ with the hope of surprising and overwhelming its opponent into submission.
In May 2026, Russia most certainly fell into the latter category.
It’s not winning this war.
Far from it.
The early gains and momentum of 2022 have all but evaporated.
Almost zero major towns or cities have been captured since the first year of the campaign.
The country’s economy is slipping into a serious crisis, its war machine is running on fumes, and it has suffered the worst casualties and overall losses of any major power since the Second World War.
It has been embarrassed, isolated, and shunned, and its former status as one of the world’s mightiest and most intimidating military superpowers has crumbled as it continues to struggle against a far smaller and theoretically weaker opponent.
And the best visual representation of Russia’s
collapse came on May 9 – Victory Day, one of the most important dates on the Russian calendar – the commemoration of the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany in 1945.
For decades, every year on May 9, a grand military parade has taken place in the Red Square of Moscow.
Broadcast across Russia and beyond, it’s historically been one of the most watched events of the year – the perfect opportunity for Putin to flaunt his military muscle.
Past iterations of the parade have seen hundreds of main battle tanks shaking the very ground of the iconic Red Square while fighter jets scream overhead and the latest air defenses and cutting-edge missile launchers are rolled out for all to see.
For the Kremlin, the event was as much about honoring the past as it was about showing off Russia’s bright and glorious future.
But as the war has progressed, this once grand spectacle has devolved into a shadow of its former self.
And on May 9, 2026, the event almost didn’t even go ahead.
In the weeks building up to the parade, Moscow was awash with rumors about a possible Ukrainian attack during the event, or even an attempt on Putin’s life, with the president reportedly resorting to hiding out in underground bunkers, fearful that his days were numbered.
It was only after US President Donald Trump intervened and arranged a temporary truce between Russia and Ukraine that Putin actually decided to go ahead with the parade and show his face in the Red Square.
To rub salt in his wounds, his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, issued a mock decree, “permitting” Russia to hold its Victory Day celebrations and promising that no Ukrainian drones or missiles would disrupt them.
The very fact that Zelenskyy was in a position to make such a jibe shows how the momentum of the war has shifted.
It would have seemed laughable, only a few short years ago, to suggest that the Kremlin was frightened of hosting an event in the heart of Moscow in case Ukraine interfered.
Now, it’s simply par for the course.
It’s a testament to how the tables have turned, with Ukraine becoming an increasingly formidable threat to Russia to contend with, right at the same time as Russia’s own military machine reaches its weakest ever point.
And even though the May 9 parade went ahead, it might have been better for Putin if he’d canceled it instead.
No tanks were present.
In fact, there was no mobile military column whatsoever for the first time since 2008.
Russia couldn’t even drag some old Cold War or World War II-era tank out to at least save face.
It had nothing to show apart from a few hundred troops and a handful of fighter jets.
While Putin stood in front of a small crowd to give his speech, speaking of Russian “heroes” on the front lines facing off against Ukraine and NATO combined, the world’s media mocked the display, which only served to show just how far the Kremlin had fallen.
Clearly, they struck a nerve.
Putin’s whole persona is built on power projection.
Ever
since he first came to power, he’s been desperate to present himself as some sort of ‘strongman’ figure – the modern-day Peter the Great – the only one with the heart and grit needed to lead a country of such a size.
But on May 9, the evidence was clear to see: the Emperor had no clothes, and even inside Russia, Putin’s popularity was slipping by the day.
Not only that, but even though Ukraine had abided by the truce and avoided targeting Moscow, it was still carrying out numerous successive strikes on other important targets, like oil refineries, ammo depots, and military facilities, both in the occupied regions and within Russia itself.
Pressure was rising on Putin, and his future was looking increasingly grim.
And when authoritarian dictators start to lose their grip on power, they tend to behave like wild animals, backed into corners.
They lash out.
True to form, that’s exactly what Putin did.
He knew he needed to change the narrative.
The world was laughing at him, his grand parade was an abject embarrassment, and time was running out to turn the situation around.
But he had one final card to play, one last ace up his sleeve.
The Oreshnik.
The one weapon that could, perhaps, turn the tide.
A weapon that would deal such damage that the world would instantly forget about the Victory Day humiliation.
This would silence the critics.
It would stun the doubters into silence.
It would prove to the public that Putin was still the right man for the job and make the wider world frightened of Russia all over again.
And so, the president gave the order.
He didn’t wait for his commanders to find an ideal target.
He didn’t form a sensible strategy or bide his time until the perfect moment came.
He wanted to act immediately, delivering a big and bombastic blow to his enemy.
He wanted fires and explosions and bloodshed, no matter the cost.
And so, plans were put into place.
Over the weekend of May 23 to May 24, Russia would launch one of its biggest-ever missile and drone attacks against Ukraine.
It would target multiple regions all in one fell swoop, sending 90 missiles and 600 drones over the border.
The total cost of the attack would later be estimated at up to or perhaps even over the $400 million mark.
And the crowning jewel of it all would be the Oreshnik, which would arrive towards the end of the strike, delivering a finale that Ukraine – and the rest of the world – would not soon forget.
Putin was confident, and it’s not hard to see why.
Like so many others, he, too, bought into the hype of this missile.
Surrounded by sycophants and ‘yes men,’ he was led to believe it was a truly game-changing innovation.
But was it, really? To find out, we need to take a closer look at this weapon’s development and true capacities.
Despite being marketed as a brand new creation, the Oreshnik – which translates to ‘Hazel Shrub’ in English – is actually believed to be based on a pre-existing system: the RS-26 Rubezh, an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that was developed in the 2000s and underwent several successful test launches in the 2010s, but never officially entered service.
Many analysts and experts believe that the Oreshnik is simply a variant of the RS-26 with slightly less range, but capable of extraordinary speeds.
Hypersonic speeds, to be precise.
In military terms, hypersonic weapons are those that can exceed Mach 5 – or five times the speed of sound, in excess of 3,800 miles per hour.
The very word ‘hypersonic’ is enough to invoke a certain level of fear and intimidation.
Weapons that move this fast have long been regarded as almost unstoppable, able to speed past conventional defenses before they even register on their radar screens.
That’s why the world’s leading military powers, including the United States and China, have poured huge amounts of money and resources into developing these sorts of systems, which could bring about a whole new era of warfare.
And the Oreshnik wasn’t just at the lower limit of ‘hypersonic’ – according to the
Ukrainian military, it was reportedly capable of exceeding not merely Mach 5, but Mach 10, giving it a peak speed in excess of 7,600 miles per hour (12,300 kilometers per hour).
That places it among the fastest missiles in existence today.
But speed isn’t everything.
Plenty of ballistic missiles exist that can travel at hypersonic speeds during certain portions of their flight paths.
The real challenge isn’t just moving quickly – it’s staying on target and evading air defenses while traveling at those same extreme velocities.
But that, too, apparently wasn’t a problem for Oreshnik.
Kremlin officials described how this missile boasted advanced maneuverability, allowing it to adjust its direction of travel mid-flight.
They also explained that it was fitted with not one but up to six separate and independently targetable warheads.
That, alone, changed everything.

Suddenly, this wasn’t just a single threat, but a whole cluster of them.
Each missile had the potential to cause not one but several devastating explosions, all at once, in different locations.
On paper, it was a terrifying prospect – the Oreshnik wasn’t just rapid and agile, seemingly able to evade the latest and greatest air defense systems, but it was dramatically more destructive than anyone had originally imagined.
In short, it seemed that this system truly lived up to the
‘wonder weapon’ label.
Finally, the Kremlin may have created something that was worthy of the hype and propaganda attached to it – a weapon that traveled ten times faster than the speed of sound, followed complex flight paths to evade detection, gave defenders almost zero time to prepare or protect themselves, and packed enough firepower to level entire cities.
On top of all this, the Oreshnik also had the capacity to carry nuclear warheads.
This didn’t seem like just another addition to the Russian arsenal, but a new tool of psychological warfare – something that would make the Kremlin’s enemies fearful and obedient for generations to come.
And in November 2024, Russia gave the world just a glimpse of what this weapon could do.
It carried out its first Oreshnik attack against Ukraine, not with a fully-powered missile, but one that had been fitted with ‘dummy’ warheads, effectively as a way of proving that the system was operational without revealing its full capacities.
It was on November 21 that the missile was fired from the Kapustin Yar training ground, striking a Pivdenmash plant in Dnipro.
Putin called it a ‘live fire test’ of the new system, while proudly proclaiming: “Modern air defense systems that exist in the world and anti-missile defenses created by the Americans in Europe can’t intercept such missiles.
” In the aftermath, analysts around the world assessed the implications of this new weapon, fearful for what it might mean for the future of Ukraine and even for the integrity of the NATO alliance.
Maxim Starchak, an expert on Russian nuclear policy and strategic weapons, wrote that the test was “designed to show that Russia had bigger and more powerful missiles” than everyone else: “Using such an experimental weapon was not supposed to undermine Ukraine’s military potential per se, but to frighten Europeans into pressuring their governments to cut a deal with the Kremlin.
” For a time, it looked like Putin’s plan might prove successful, as the wider world was quite shaken by Oreshnik’s alleged capabilities.
But there were still question marks and debates about how effective it would actually be with real warheads.
Was it the game-changer the Kremlin claimed, or was it, in fact, just another extremely expensive but not all that effective missile? May 2026 provided the answer.
Before we look closer at that, if this is the kind of insight you want more of, make sure you’re subscribed to The Military Show.
We break it down like this every week.
May 23 and 24 were tragic days for Ukraine.
Overnight on Saturday and into the early hours of Sunday morning, Russia’s massive missile and drone strike rained down on the country’s capital, Kyiv.
All of the capital’s districts were hit by a mixture of Kh-101 cruise missiles, Iskander-Ms, Kh-47M2 Kinzhals, and 3M22 Zircons.
Drones also flooded Kyiv’s skies, including newer and faster models that were more difficult for Ukraine’s defenses to stop.
Even with the capital’s complex and layered system, made up of interceptor drones, electronic warfare systems, helicopters, surface-to-air missiles, and mobile fire teams armed with machine guns, the attack was simply too large to cope with.
While Ukraine managed to shoot down around 44 of the 54 Kh-101s and a portion of the other missiles, too, along with many of the drones, some still made it through, colliding with residential homes and civilian infrastructure, like the National Chornobyl Museum.
At least four people were killed, with around 100 more injured (initial nationwide figures; the later confirmed Kyiv toll was put at two killed and around 90 injured), as buildings were reduced to rubble and vast fires broke out across the capital region.
It was clear: Russia was making a statement, snapping back at the prevailing narrative that it was starting to lose the war, with Keir Giles of Chatham House saying: “Russia will have been dismayed at the shift in global perception of the war over recent weeks.
The inching back of the front line, together with Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russia, has shown many people the deep cracks in Russia’s previous narrative that its victory was inevitable.
” In the aftermath of the attack, however, analysts noticed something very unusual.
Russia had indeed fired an Oreshnik missile the night of May 23.
But it didn’t strike in the heart of Kyiv.
It didn’t wipe out a major military installation or site of strategic importance.
Instead, the Oreshnik targeted the much smaller city of Bila Tserkva, an estimated 50 miles south of Kyiv.
The obvious question then emerged: why? Why would the Kremlin plan this massive attack on the Ukrainian capital and decide to use its wonder weapon, but not actually send the Oreshnik into Kyiv itself, but towards some smaller city that seems to be of no major importance whatsoever? There are two obvious answers to that question.
The first is that perhaps there was some sort of hugely important tactical target in Bila Tserkva that Russia wanted to make sure it destroyed, so it sent its lesser missiles to Kyiv and saved the Oreshnik for this other location.
But that theory doesn’t hold water.
Because the
missile didn’t actually hit anything of note.
In fact, according to open source intelligence that analysts have assessed, all it really did was blow up a few garages.
The other explanation, then, is that Russia selected Bila Tserkva because it was frightened of attacking Kyiv.
Why? Because Kyiv is one of the most heavily defended cities in all of Europe.
Many of Ukraine’s best air defense systems are deployed there.
That includes everything from AI-powered turrets to the legendary Lima EW system that can disrupt drone and missile signals to send them spiraling off course.
There are also surface-to-air missile batteries here, along with other defenses designed to limit the effectiveness of Russia’s relentless attacks on the capital.
Russia knows all of this.
It knows that over 80% of the drones and missiles it fires at Kyiv are usually intercepted, one way or another, and therefore go to waste.
And it’s likely that the Kremlin didn’t want to run the risk of the same thing happening to the Oreshnik.
It’s not difficult to imagine how poor the optics would be if the Russians decided to unleash this weapon, which has so much hype and fear attached to it, only to see it taken out in mid-air by a Ukrainian or NATO interceptor.
That would completely shatter the myth of the Oreshnik.
It would destroy the massive fear factor that Russian officials have built around this system.
So, the obvious alternative solution is to pick a target that has far fewer defenses, with a much smaller chance of being able to intercept the wonder weapon.
A target like Bila Tserkva.
And so, once again, we come to the real reason behind the missile’s launch.
It was yet another piece of psychological theater.
Russia wasn’t actually trying to take out important targets.
It wanted the world to see its missile in action; it wanted viral videos to spread online, showing the multiple warheads separating from the missile system and raining down on this city.
In reality, however, the Kremlin’s play has massively backfired.
Putin wanted the world to see the full force of Russia’s next-generation hypersonic missile system.
Instead, all they can see is a few burned-out garages.
And all of a sudden, the Oreshnik looks far less frightening than it did before.
Because this attack underlines what many military experts have been saying for years: that even though this missile may be fast and look impressive at a glance, it has one serious flaw – it’s inaccurate.
We don’t know what Russia was actually trying to hit in Bila Tserkva.
The city does have a small air base, used by the Ukrainian Air Force.
There’s a larger Soviet-era airfield nearby, as well.
Some experts believe that the missile was supposed to strike an aviation repair facility.
Either way, it missed.
These missiles are said to cost around $50 million each.
$50 million is quite a high price to pay to blow up a few Soviet-style garages made of sheet metal and concrete blocks.
But that’s what Russia did.
They wasted one of their rarest and most valuable assets and got precisely nothing in return except more embarrassment.
Even if they’d taken out the repair plant, the strike would still have made zero economic sense, and if the Oreshnik is as inaccurate and unreliable as it seems, it will almost never make any sense to use this missile at all.
Because it will more than likely miss whatever it’s aimed at and have almost
no notable effect on the war, whatsoever.
And the story doesn’t end there.
It actually gets much worse, at least from Russia’s perspective.
Because here’s the part the Kremlin desperately doesn’t want people to know: according to the Institute for the Study of War and Ukrainian open-source analysts, it may not have fired just one Oreshnik on the night of May 23 to 24.
It may have fired two.
(Important caveat for the team: Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat publicly stated only one Oreshnik was launched and struck Bila Tserkva.
The second-missile account rests on OSINT video and is labeled “likely” / “if confirmed” by ISW — it is not officially confirmed.
) Before the strike in Bila Tserkva had even occurred, Ukrainian monitoring channels reported something unusual.
It seemed that a high-speed, high-altitude ballistic missile had been launched from inside Russian territory.
All the signs were there: this was an Oreshnik missile, and it was headed straight for Central Ukraine.
Analysts feared the worst, bracing for one of the most devastating impacts of the war so far.
But then, nothing happened.
The blip on the radar disappeared.
It didn’t speed towards Kyiv or the surrounding towns and cities.
It was simply gone.
There were no videos, no images, no reports from Ukrainian civilians online talking about terrible waves of explosive warheads firing from above.
A few hours later, the truth came out.
The first Oreshnik had crash landed somewhere in the occupied Donetsk region – around the Avdiivka or Yasynuvata (Yass-ee-noo-vah-tah) area, to be precise.
Russian troops are actually stationed in that area, and it’s possible that the missile may have caused casualties among them.
We don’t know exactly how the situation unfolded.
But there’s no way that this was intentional.
Even though Russian commanders tend to treat their troops like cannon fodder, they wouldn’t go as far as launching a hypersonic missile at their own men.
What seems to have happened, instead, is that the first Oreshnik suffered some sort of malfunction mid-flight.
Perhaps its guidance system wasn’t properly calibrated, or one of its booster stages failed.
Either way, rather than speeding into Kyiv Oblast, the weapon fell at the first hurdle, and we can only imagine the level of panic and frustration that must have spread among Kremlin officials in the immediate aftermath.
Even Putin himself most likely heard the news about this spectacular failure.
It may even be that a second Oreshnik launch wasn’t originally planned, but that the order was quickly given as a desperate attempt to cover up the mess of the first one.
This could also explain why the second missile struck a seemingly random town rather than anything of any great importance – because the whole attack had to be rushed, rather than planned out with care and precision.
The long-term implications of this failure are enormous and were discussed in a recent report from the Institute for the Study of War, which wrote: “Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) sources reported May 25 that footage from May 24 indicates that Russian forces launched a second Oreshnik and that the missile malfunctioned and struck a location in occupied Donetsk Oblast… If confirmed, these reports would indicate that one of every four Oreshniks that Russian forces have used thus far in the war have malfunctioned.
” Indeed, it’s worth noting that along with the two missiles launched in late May,
plus the one from 2024, another Oreshnik was fired in January of this year.
It reportedly struck the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant.

That makes a grand total of four Oreshniks fired at Ukraine so far, one of which didn’t even make it to the target area, giving the missile an embarrassing 25% failure rate.
When we consider that the Bila Tserkva missile only hit a few garages, then that one can arguably be classed as a failure, as well.
Now, if this were just some cheap kamikaze drone or a relatively basic cruise missile, a one in four chance of failure wouldn’t necessarily be that serious.
Top military forces wouldn’t exactly be happy about it, but they might accept it as simply the ‘cost of doing business.
’ But the Oreshnik isn’t a cheap drone or basic missile.
It’s supposed to be a generational weapon: an IRBM designed to carry nuclear warheads – the ultimate deterrent, warding off any military actions from NATO and Russia’s other enemies.
How can you rely on a nuclear missile if it’s got a decent chance of blowing up in your face or landing a thousand miles away from where you wanted it to? Short answer: you can’t.
If Vladimir Putin ever ordered a strategic nuclear strike using the Oreshnik as it is today, he’d be putting tens of millions of Russian lives at risk.
He’d have a 25% shot of nuking his own territory, vaporizing his own infrastructure, and wiping Russian cities off the map.
Because of this, the Oreshnik cannot be classed as a deterrent.
It can’t even be classed as a functional ballistic missile.
It’s a little more than a liability.
A hugely expensive and ridiculously hyped liability that is fundamentally broken and may require years of additional development to ever be fixed.
Even then, if we judge based on the dozens of other Russian military programs that started off strong but ultimately fizzled out into nothing, it’s likely that the Oreshnik will never be able to do what Moscow wants it to do.
In one single night, Putin ruined the one thing this weapon had going for it: its mystique.
The world didn’t know exactly how good or bad it was, but they knew that Russia had put a lot of work into it, and that it had the potential to be a game-changer.
That should have been enough for Moscow.
It was so valuable for the Kremlin to have the wider world fearful of a weapon that it hadn’t even seen in action.
But in actually using it, Russia basically let the world know that there’s nothing to fear, after all.
And even the country’s own nationalists, Putin supporters, and military bloggers realized this and have rightfully called the Kremlin out for making such a stupid error.
Soon after images, videos, and reports of the launch emerged, some of Moscow’s best-known Z-bloggers shared their thoughts online.
“Just expensive metal into the ground!” raged one.
“Pathetic show-off nonsense,” said another.
The weekend attack on Kyiv was supposed to be a victorious moment for Russia.
It was supposed to be the country turning the tide, flipping the script, and upending all the ideas about it being on the ropes.
Instead, much of the discussion online among the country’s military experts focused on the Oreshnik and what a ridiculous waste of money it seemed to be.
As previously stated, Russia spent an estimated $400 million on the drones and missiles used in that attack – $100 million of that was the cost of the two Oreshniks.
One went nowhere and the other blew up a few garages.
It’s no wonder the Z-bloggers are enraged.
Their country’s economy is spiraling, and their military leaders think it makes sense to throw tens of millions of dollars literally away for nothing.
On the broader stage, too, Putin may have hoped that his use of the Oreshnik would send a shiver down the spines of NATO and European leaders.
That didn’t happen, either.
Instead, European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the Kremlin’s decision.
Kaja Kallas, meanwhile, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs (and a Vice-President of the European Commission), saw right through the attack, calling it “a political scare-tactic and reckless nuclear brinkmanship” and noting that Russia had turned to such strikes after reaching a dead end on the battlefield.
Kallas went on to say the Kremlin was only concerned with killing as many civilians as possible, and announced that EU foreign ministers would meet to discuss increasing international pressure on Russia in response.
And, rather than backing down, the Commission VP went on to note that European leaders will soon discuss ways to increase international pressure on Russia in response.
Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, also condemned the attack, calling it a “merciless display of brutality directed against civilians and civilian infrastructure,” and “a stark reminder that Russia is not interested in meaningful peace negotiations.
” Like Kallas, Costa affirmed that Europe remained “firm and unwavering” in its support of Ukraine and would not play along with Putin’s games.
Because the days of Russia terrorizing the world are over.
After more than four years of failure in Ukraine, after countless lies, broken promises, and empty threats, nobody believes a word that comes out of the Kremlin anymore, nor are they afraid of it.
Partly, this is because of Ukraine and its amazing displays of resilience and bravery in defying the odds and defending its territory.
But it’s also partly the consequence of Putin’s own hubris and foolishness.
After spending decades building his own strongman reputation and establishing his country as some sort of all-powerful, all-conquering force, the Russian president has subsequently set his own Empire ablaze, making one monumental mistake after another that have all served not to intimidate his enemies, but to highlight his own insecurities.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is quietly getting on with business and
making some major breakthroughs in the areas that matter most, undoing Russia’s advances and clawing back lost land.
In Crimea, for example, Ukrainian forces are successfully isolating the region, severing the supply lines that Russia has relied on for years and paving the way for potential liberation, which you can learn more about in this video.
Alternatively, you might like to watch this video to see how Ukraine orchestrated another devastating drone strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, dealing massive damage to one of Putin’s finest warships.
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